Derby 20/20

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Derby Picks & Pans

Just really quickly you can keep up w/ many bloggers top picks here: and don't forget to check the site for blogs, news, & videos (and all the free pp's you can find) Good luck everyone, factor in some rain on Saturday.

A Small Wager on a Non Derby Race

While many will focus on Kentucky Derby BettingI think a really good race to make a wager might come the day before in the American Turf Stakes.  A mile and a 16th on the Turf with a ton of horses that all look the same at first glance.  We know Setsuko who it seems had a soft spot in many people's hearts for the Derby will get some wagering love, but count me as one not too enamored.  So what do we have? I think the speed of the speed of the will be Strike the Tiger with John Velazquez aboard.  His last race was a total speed and fade as he lumbered home and still only lost by a neck.  This will be his third start off the layoff and count me intrigued w/ a trainer who gets 50% ITM with 3rd off the layoff.  Pushing him early I think will be the 7 Asphalt who I'm hoping has learned to rate a bit better than his last effort.  Funny how you can like the 3rd start for one horse and the layoff for another, but I do.  And the 3rd horse I'm using is Doubles Parter.  This is an easy explanation = Pletcher + Gomez + Winstar + 10/1 + breeding to Serena's Song = My money on the nose. So with the cacophony of the  Derby now gaining to its fevered pitch don't forget the other races. $1 Ex and Tri box = 5,6,7 $8 Win Doubles Partner

Derby Pick

You know you're going to read about 100,000 words over the next 10 days all about the Derby: Who's taking to the surface, who washed out, whose jockey fought who, where did Wayne Lukas get his teeth, etc.  So allow me a few small paragraphs to talk about the key to my Derby wagering. I love Eskendereya, I'll be rocking the Eskendereya t-shirt, he's locked up my top spot no matter what gate, he could start in the stands for all I'm concerned.  The bigger question is who completes the exacta, now why would you want to listen to me?  Well I bet the wrong Bird horse last year, but did do nicely w/ Eight Belles and Denis of Cork.  I have a knack of screwing up the top horse while nailing the underneath.  So there's your words of warning.  So if you're looking to do some Kentucky Derby Betting allow me to help you underneath.  Dublin - His mother was a graded stakes winner at 3, 4, & 5, and I am a big Afleet Alex fan.  Like his father he's had both an impressive 2yo and 3yo campaign, (#5 TBA 2yo last year, and tied for 12th so far this year).  Let's go to the video tape.  In the Southwest he blows the start, he's slow and then bobbles at like the 3rd jump, but the key I take away from this race is his move on the far turn.  About 4-5 wide he's motoring, once he hits the lane he doesn't shorten up, he looks strong.  Next, in the Rebel a much better start but again he's about 6 wide on the turn, he causes some trouble for Lookin At Lucky on the backstretch, is 4-5 wide on the far turn but again comes home nicely and doesn't look leg weary at all.  His best start is in the Arkansas Derby and there is no excuse throughout the whole race.  I just want to note that I think the Oaklawn surface this year has been said to be slow and tiring, I think that's a positive for horses who have trained and run over it.  The relief that Dublin feels from a faster strip at Churchill just might do the trick. So you heard it here first: Use Dublin, maybe not to win, but for sure include him underneath.  He might be close to 20-1 according to the TBA morning line, I think that's very fair.  I like him because of his improving starts, his training at Oaklawn, and Lukas you know has 1 more in him.

Standings vs Graded Earnings

The rules governing who gets in to the 20 gates for the Derby work.  BUT, they are not optimal.  There are years when horse #24, #26 is more deserving than horse #18.  Yes, it's a small argument, but at some point it will bite us all on the ass as a horse left out will win the Preakness, Belmont, Haskell Triple Crown and then maybe something will be done.  The thing is, back in the day the value of the purse matched the value of the Grade, but w/ races like the Gr III Delta Jackpot, and the large purses they put up for 2yo races in the Summer horses are having their ticket punched to the Derby earlier and earlier, and that is a disservice to fans who like the build up, who like the road to the roses.  Again, the industry does itself a disservice by allowing tracks to buy a horse of "theirs" entry in the Derby. Not a good situation. If something like the TBA standings were in place horses like Pleasant Prince, Caracortado, Jackson Bend, Northern Giant, Pulsion, First Dude, Setsuko, & A Little Warm would be in at the expense of Mission Impazible, Endorsement, Conveyance, American Lion, Discreetly Mine, Dean's Kitten, Awesome Act, & Homeboy Kris. Now that's not perfect either, but that's more because of the fact that there aren't standings in place, otherwise trainers would change their way of placing horses. However, what I think would be ideal would be top 2 in a Gr I, winners in Gr II next, then Gr III's plus the BC Juvenile Winner. If you went w/ that your field would be: 1 ESKENDEREYA (Gr 1, 1st) 2 JACKSON BEND (Gr 1, 2nd) 3 SIDNEY'S CANDY (Gr 1, 1st) 4 SETSUKO (Gr 1, 2nd) 5 STATELY VICTOR(Gr 1, 1st) 6 PADDY O'PRADO(Gr 1, 2nd) 7 LINE OF DAVID(Gr 1, 1st) 8 SUPER SAVER(Gr 1, 2nd) 9 ICE BOX (Gr 1, 1st) 10 PLEASANT PRINCE (Gr 1, 2nd) 11 D' FUNNYBONE (Gr 2, 1st) 12 MISSION IMPAZIBLE (Gr 2, 1st) 13 DEAN'S KITTEN (Gr 2, 1st) 14 LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Gr 2, 1st) 15 DISCREETLY MINE (Gr 2, 1st) 16 CARACORTADO (Gr 2, 1st) 17 Coolmore Lexington Winner Gr III Winners get in on Graded Stakes Earnings (3 current money standings) RULE (Gr 3) (10) ENDORSEMENT (Gr 3) (11) CONVEYANCE (Gr 3) The below horses would be on the outside looking in......(red highlights currently in real Derby, wouldn't be included this way) (12) AMERICAN LION (Gr 3) (18) AWESOME ACT (Gr 3) (26) ODYSSEUS (Gr 3) (33) CONNEMARA (Gr 3) (36) EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY (Gr 3) (38) ALPHIE'S BET (Gr 3) Noble's Promise doesn't qualify Dublin doesn't qualify You want to only include 3 yo races at 8 furlongs or more, ok D'Funnybone out American Lion in. And that's a perfect field if you ask me.

Kentucky Derby 20/20

I'm sorry this post isn't coming from the originator, but Kennedy of the now retired Kennedy's Corridor was kind enough to allow me to post this.  I hope you all enjoy it as much as I have in prior years.  I think it's a great tool for narrowing the field, and has done well picking out some longer shots finishing in the frame. #1 The entrant must earn a Beyer Speed Figure around two turns as a three year old that is equal to or superior to the average two turn prep winning figure #2 Last two Beyer figures achieved must total the average two turn prep winning figures times two minus five. #3 The entrant must have been first or second at the 1/8th pole in one of their final two prep races. #4 The entrants last two prep races must have been run around two turns. #5 The entrants finishing position must be no worse than their position at the 1/8th pole in both final preps #6 The entrant must have run the final 1/8, 1/4 and 3/8th’s faster than or equal to the fields average closing fractions in their last prep. #7 The entrant must have finished in the money in their last prep. #8 The entrant must either win or finish within three lengths of the winner in their last prep. #9 The entrant must have finished in the money in at least two races as a three year old.   #10 The entrants last Beyer Speed Figure cannot be worse than his previous two. #11 The entrant must be a stakes winner.  #12 The entrant must have either won or finished within three lengths of the winner in a Graded Main Track route race as a three year old         #13 The entrant must have at least one prep race at nine furlongs. #14 The entrant must have faced a field size of 10 or more as a three year old, or the entrant must have done so at least twice as a two year old #15 Highest Lifetime Beyer must be achieved in a two turn race. #16 The entrants sire or broodmare sire must show a progeny average stakes winning distance of 8.00f or more The whole sheet can be found here