Buzzing Around the Breeders' Cup

I wrote an editorial piece that appears today in the Thoroughbred Times. It came about after some Twitter discussion with long time standings curmudgeon Ed Derosa. See, he's finally starting to come around to standings, and if he is... well maybe some other people will too. The crux of the article is about creating buzz around the Breeders Cup ala the Derby. It's a tall task, I know, but I'm afraid that the Breeders' Cup next year will be changing, and I'm afraid it will only change through some sort of subtraction: less days, less money, less racing. When things are bad it creates an opportunity for change, and some of that changing usually is subtraction, but true change is through addition. My thesis: Focus on the graded stakes that play apart in the field choice mechanism, rebrand that the Breeders' Cup Challenge series, and create standings that lead to gate choice. Make the graded stakes relevant in a manner that doesn't really upset the apple cart [Is anyone against the best horses getting the best draws], draws in casual fans [the top 20 list for the Derby is the bridge that connects hardcore and casual fans], and has a hook for hardcore fans [it will be fun to talk about who will draw where in races like the Classic at Belmont, or with speed horses] So, what do you think? And really, I'm not looking for only comments on this, (though feel free to leave them) I'm looking for others to pick up the blogging torch and write what you think. I think this is the time to get some change in this sport, and I think we have to speak up for something fresh, new, and fun.

Why Standings Work

The season of horse racing is for the most part over so let's see how the standings fared this year. 2yo Filly - She Be Wild (320) Beautician (275) Blind Luck (200) I think we've nailed the winner of the Eclipse, the hard part is the 2nd and 3rd place horses. The other Gr I fillies didn't do anything else, so while their name will be on the ballot She Be Wild is a mortal lock for the Eclipse. 2yo Male - Lookin At Lucky (335) Vale Of York (240) Noble's Promise (240) Again, we've nailed the winner but finishing out the rest is a little difficult due to the synth/dirt thing with some horses running and not running. 3yo Filly - Rachel (905) Gozzip Girl (350) Stardom Bound (300) Very happy with this outcome, everyone forgets how close Stardom Bound was to being the big 3yo filly everyone was following. She had 2 Gr I Wins earlier in the year, just wonder if time is the big discounter. 3yo Male - Summer Bird (595) Zensational (450) Quality Road (405) I think we've got the first 2, but we left off Mine That Bird who was 4th with 385 points. The difference of 20 points is mostly due to the extra race QR ran, and honestly, other than the Derby Mine That Bird had a middling type year. Quality Road had 3 wins. It's not perfect, but close enough to not throw the baby out w/ the bath water. F&M Sprint - Informed Decision (625) Ventura (610) Game Face (245) Nailed it. The top two were razor thin, and who really knows or cares about #3. Had Ventura pulled off the upset and won one of the races in the open company Turf division it would have gone the other way. Sprint - Zensational (450) Kodiak Kowboy (360) Fabulous Strike (310) This division was weak this year, but Zensational, though he flattened in the BC, was ultra consistent and a star. He is a 3yo after all. The race for this is probably not quite over, but not enough races to make a huge difference. F&M Turf - Forever Together (475) Magical Fantasy (415) Pure Clan (365) I'm not sure where the Eclipse will go. MF did all her work on the West Coast and won, but Forever Together went places and took chances and did ok. The standings favor FT because of the amount of races she won, and if you want to build the sport w/ new fans you want them to get behind that kind of horse, no? Does it go to Goldikova? The TBA needs 3 starts in NA to count points (the whole fan base argument), but if that wasn't an issue she amassed: 508.75 and seems right. Turf - Gio Ponti (720) Presious Passion (500) Just As Well (430) Again, if you have a problem with 3rd I think for the most part if standings were in place you'd see different outcomes as horses would point for challenging races, less ducking, more racing. I think we nailed the top 2. F&M - Zenyatta (715) Life is Sweet (655) Seventh Street (440) Scary part is that had Zenyatta finished 2nd she wouldn't have won the TBA F&M division, and that's a real problem. Not sure what to do as Life is Sweet ran 8 times this year to Zenyatta's 5. I think a perfect solution would be have standings create the top 5 horses voters can then vote on, and/or have standings determine gate choice in the BC. Older Horse - Gio Ponti (720) Einstein (475) Cowboy Cal (350) The top dirt horse ( a horse who has a Gr I win on dirt/synth) was Einstein, but Turf horses also are eligible for this award. What a weak division this year. Jockey - Gomez (4310) Leparoux (4070) Velazquez (2545) Those top 2 put on a show this year. Leparoux even had the lead after some weekends, and it's probably not over yet. HOTY - Rachel Alexandra (905) Gio Ponti (720) Zenyatta (715) Life is Sweet (655) Informed Decision (625) Only 1 male horse in the top 5. Why not? Summer Bird will probably get a look, but I'd say the above 5 were all more dominating in their divisions than Summer Bird, and to me that's what the Eclipse is about. Oh, and why do standings work cause Ed DeRosa said so. As for HOTY and the TBA, in a perfect world you'd weight the different categories accordingly and you'd probably get Summer Bird on the list.

A Level Playing Field

Joe Drape just wrote Here is one vote to make Santa Anita Park the permanent home of the Breeders’ Cup... The European success, however, can largely be attributed to a more level playing field He said the same thing last year with the "level playing field" thing. I heartily disagree. Synthetic does not seem to be a fair surface, and I think the folks at the BC are just lucky that Zenyatta (an American hero now) is masterful on it. What would the print be saying today had a European again won our greatest race? Someone once said, and now I'm stealing it (and can't remember who), "that the essence of American racing is dirt." And yet I don't see one "dirt" name in the winner's circle and barely in any frame. For the record, my feelings on Synthetic surfaces is that I'm pro them for facilities with huge biases (Kee, California) and weather issues, just not for championships, at least not often.

Oh Woes Me

I'm looking at a scrap of paper: R7 - 7/11/1,2,3,5 That is a $4 pick three that would have returned $1700, I didn't bet it, I was too busy pissing my money away on some other lousy bets. I was flat on the day after Friday, but Saturday I just couldn't find the rhythm and wasn't happy w/ my betting. I didn't like California Flag, and that was a mistake, but I loved Dancing In Silks and Crown of Thorns, but thought Zensational would hold for first or second, I liked Vale of York, but thought the post would do in Lookin at Lucky so bet a crazy exacta and came 1st and 3rd (and worse), Tried to key Goldi on top, but didn't like Courageous Cat, loved Justenuff. Loved Furthest Land, didn't hit the exacta (didnt' come close). Singled Conduit in some things but didn't freakin nail the easiest Tri ever. I didn't like Zenyatta, and was proven wrong, though I was 2nd in the late pick 3. I did some GREAT handicapping, but like usual when it comes to actual betting I SUCK! If you had given me $6,000 and forced me to play the pick 6, I'm very confident I could have hit it. And yes this is all whining and red boarding and being a big baby, but whatever a blog is a selfish endeavour. ;-D There's always next year.

A #BC09 conspiracy theory

There is no way the grounds crew at Santa Anita will set the track up like last year. If the Euro's walk out w/ everything that isn't nailed down heads will roll at the BC ltd. I've skewed my handicapping to pressers and front runners, I think you all should do the same unless proven otherwise on Friday. My picks are up at http://bit.ly/2GqfpQ