A Tale of Misunderstanding

The BC Understands: The most lucrative property in all of North American horse racing is the Kentucky Derby, and the Breeders' Cup will do everything they can to put the BC on the same level of awareness. They understand the inherent advantages the Derby holds over them, specifically location (which they copy on certain years), historical significance, and place on the racing calendar. Their process so far has been bumpy, but I believe their decision to go to 2 days and the way they achieved that goal was correct (if you want to argue watering down of the product I think you can) The BC Misunderstands: "Win and You're In" the Breeders' Cup Challenge is a failure for their regular fans and for the passive fans they try and recruit. This is simple misunderstanding on what the Derby "is" and how it gets there: The road to the Derby is a road of attrition more than a road of automatic bids. The Derby is the culmination of a racing season that starts the prior Fall. Us, regular fans will follow the early Santa Anita races, Gulfstream and help build the momentum of "buzz" to the First Saturday in May. While we all understand the winner of the Delta Jackpot, the SA Derby, or the Bluegrass has their ticket punched we're more intrigued by how the horse progresses. A horse who finishes a fast closing third, then wins his next two races sustains his buzz (keeps us talking). The more buzz, the more excitement, the more succesful a Derby. Think of this way: Who generated more main stream buzz this year? Friesan Fire or Big Drama. The BC corrupts this process with Win and You're In. Again, the regular fans clearly recognize that the Arlington winner will be in the BC Turf, but what is more important is how that horse progresses from that race. Win and You're In might as well be Win and Wait. There is a solution to all this. Standings that lead to gate choice. You can use your W&YI races (though equating Gr I's to Gr III is crazy that's another argument) and just assign cumulative points. Again, this doesn't change anything, winners of these prestigious events will still have the ability to come to the BC, but you're telling your fans that getting to the BC is a process not a lottery.

The HOTY Race Could Be Over in August

Here's a very simple scenario that echo's the thoughts of Pricci: No Older Male wins any races of consequence leading up to a win in the BC. Mine That Bird loses the West Virginia Derby Zenyatta wins the Ladies Classic Rachel Alexandra wins the Haskell That scenario, I believe wins Rachel the HOTY. Mine That Bird, by going to the West Virginia Derby, can only hurt his credentials. When you take on the toughest competition people realize "undefeated" isn't an option, and losses are chalked up to track surface, a bad start, a lazy jockey, anything but the horse. However, when everyone expects a horse to win, but then doesn't that horse is forever tarnished. I'd even go as far to say that if Mine That Bird loses the West Virginia and wins the Travers people will question the 3yo crop. Very simply if Rachel wins the Haskell she'll have yet another Gr I win over 3yo open company and will have overtaken Zenyatta in the larger public's perception. Zenyatta can go undefeated, win all her races including the Ladies' Classic, but she will have done what's expected. Rachel will have accomplished the UNexpected. HOTY is an easy decision. Rachel = Alysheba Zenyatta = Personal Ensign

Perception of Gambling

I love to hear how the industry should focus on the gambling. At this point it's comical how wrong headed it is. People that make money in sports know you can't sell gambling even though millions do it. Quote from Joe Browne NFL spokesman: "If sports betting becomes more prevalent through state-promoted schemes, it will inevitably lead those gambling fans to question whether an erroneous officiating call or a dropped pass late in the game resulted from an honest mistake or an intentional act by a corrupt player or referee." h/t to Shutdown Corner.

Rachel Alexandra in the Mother Goose

LEXINGTON, KY—Rachel Alexandra, will race in the 1 1/8 -mile Mother Goose Stakes at Belmont Park, Saturday, June 27. She is expected to arrive at Belmont Park on Tuesday, June 23. The race will mark the first competition for the super filly since defeating the colts in the Preakness Stakes. Her last race against fillies was her 20-length romp at the Kentucky Oaks last month. “Rachel is rested, healthy and ready to run,” said co-owner Jess Jackson. “On Monday, she turned in a very strong six furlong work galloping out seven furlongs around the clubhouse turn in 1:24.80.” Rachel Alexandra has won eight of 11 career starts. In addition to the Preakness and Kentucky Oaks wins, Rachel Alexandra’s major victories include the Golden Rod Stakes (2008), Martha Washington Stakes (2009), Fair Grounds Oaks (2009), and Fantasy Stakes (2009). Foaled in 2006, Rachel Alexandra is out of Lotta Kim, a daughter of Claiborne Farm's multiple stakes winner, Roar. Rachel Alexandra was sired by Medaglia d'Oro, a multiple Grade I winner who retired with career earnings in excess of $5.7 million.

Higher Authority Runs Today

Isn't a shame they don't list who came up w/ the name? I mean that's a thing of beauty right there. Yes, Higher Authority will make her debut today at Delaware a little after 2pm. We're not expecting anything big (we're co 5th choice ML), we just want a good experience and for her and jockey to come home sound. What I'd like to see? A clean break, some speed, and if she isn't on the lead early to pass horses in the stretch. Hopefully she figures it out. Not really looking for a win as Ferris only has 1 first time winner out of 47 starts, so it's not impossible but pretty darn close to it. And the field is pretty deep: Source of Humor is a full sister to Commentator $235k and Wild Without Win was a beaten favorite last time out at a lower level. Right now I wouldn't swap places with anyone. Good luck to us!

What Happens to Fans when they become Owners?

Let me clean up that title: What happens to some fans when they become really successful owners. And I'm looking at you Mr. and Mrs. Moss. Mr and Mrs Moss may do as they wish with the mighty Zenyatta, there is nothing I nor anyone (outside John Sherriffs) can say that would influence them. I'm just writing a commentary about what I perceive to be a lack of focus on the big picture, while focusing on the small picture. In actuality I feel some pain for them, managing an undefeated horse has to be the hardest thing in the world (no sarcasm). It's like a no hitter, no one wants to talk to them, no one wants to disagree w/ what they are doing. Just go back out there next inning and see what happens. So, the Moss' focus must be on the undefeated campaign, and the name that must be in the back of their heads is Personal Ensign. Google greatest filly - you get Ruffian, Silverbulletday, Rachel Alexandra (too early, no?). You see lists compiled and, true, Personal Ensign is always top 10 but you never see people falling over each other to name her #1. Why is that? I don't have a solid answer; but Ruffian and her track records and demise obviously lock her up at #1, but the others on the list share a lot in common: They lost. Maybe it's easier after you lose to take a big swing for the fences and do something truly spectacular. I would say they'd be better served by keeping another name in their heads Alysheba, cause after Personal Ensign had that great year in 1986 they still didn't give her the top honors. Alysheba had a phenomenal year and lost. I'd also like to add it's not just fillies taking on open company, it's 3yo's taking on open company. The name that comes to mind there is Lost in the Fog. A spectacular sprinter who wasn't challenged in his 3yo division, and possibly waited too long to take on open company, but he too had a win streak going. "I think everyone should experience defeat at least once during their career. You learn a lot from it." Lou Holtz "There are some defeats more triumphant than victories." Michael de Montaigne "Life is truly known only to those who suffer, lose, endure adversity and stumble from defeat to defeat." Anais Nin "Defeat should never be a source of discouragement but rather a fresh stimulus." Robert South "Winning is great, sure, but if you are really going to do something in life, the secret is learning how to lose. Nobody goes undefeated all the time. If you can pick up after a crushing defeat, and go on to win again, you are going to be a champion someday." Wilma Rudolph

Summer Bird in the Haskell

Well this news came fast. Summer Bird is a go for the Haskell. So we have: Summer Bird Musket Man Rachel Alexandra Lord Justice Atomic Rain (should have added earlier, he won his first race back after a tiring finish in the Derby at Monmouth last weekend) Join in the Dance (this is just a personal opinion of mine)

Gambling & Betting

Gambling is done on random games, the house edge always wins over time. Betting is just another word for investing. You form your best opinion and back it up with cash. The house (clearing houses, vig, mafia, whatever you use) still makes their money, but it feels like you have a better shot. I'm a BIG fan of making sports gambling legal at racetracks, New Jersey will try and unscrew themselves from the problem they themselves created 30 years ago

What is a Deep Crop

joedrape: This was among the better crop of 3-year-olds in Triple Crown History. Should be a tremendous second season. http://bit.ly/hFrtC tbablogs: Yeah, Joe, not sure if I think this is one of the better crops. You have to be able to follow through on big efforts @tbabogs It's a deep bunch with star power. Let's see how it plays out. They remind me of Street Sense, Curlin, Rags and Hard Spun. A deep crop is in the eye of the beholder. As of the First Friday in May I thought we had a very deep crop. I based this on the fact that the preps were all being won by the same horses: Pioneerof The Nile out West, I Want Revenge in the East, Friesan Fire & Quality Road in the South. The races were formful, the good horses were winning, and winning somewhat impressively. I a deep field of 3yo's would look like something above, that we'd have a low priced Derby winner who would win the Preakness and who may or may not be upset in the Belmont by one of those formful horses. The Summer would come and the horses would go back to their geographical locations and dominate some more before taking on elders, winning more, only to face off one last time at the Breeders' Cup. This is what deep fields do. Instead we got a rash of untimely injuries and two horses greater than 50-1 that won the 2 legs of the Triple Crown. I'd like to believe that Summer Bird and Mine That Bird are the goods, but when have they done so in the past? Street Sense had a little more on his resume than Mine That Bird (Don't give me the champion 2yo angle). How much was the offer for Curlin after the Rebel? Is this crop deep?

Haskell Watch

Ok, on to the real race this Summer, the 2009 Monmouth Park Haskell on Aug 2nd (Yes a Sunday). I'm sure track secretary Mike Dempsey is hard at work working the phones and seeing if there's anything he can do to get a great field set for the Haskell. I'll try and make short posts if I see anything in the news. As of now we've heard it as a possibility for: Musket Man - A great horse for the Haskell. A hometown hero. A horse who gets no respect but hasn't finished off the board yet. Trust the Jersey paper to think both Rachel Alexandra and Mine that Bird are possible. I think the Rachel angle is very possible for everything noted. I'd add to it that Curlin lost the Haskell back in 2007 only to come back and win the BC there, so maybe Mr Jackson has a score to settle with the track. The only other filly winner of the Haskell was Serena's Song in 1995. Lord Justice won the first step along the way to the Haskell when he won the Spend a Buck. I think the Dunkirk would also be a good fit for the race and Pletcher has won 2 out of the last 3 and likes the race. Pletcher has been quoted as saying the following about Dunkirk's future to the Travers: "The question is how we are going to get there. It's going to be either the Jim Dandy or the Haskell (G1). We think it's ideal to give him two months of spacing in between races. The three-year-old picture is still open. We'll have to see if someone steps up and strings a couple of victories together." I'd also like to throw in another Pletcher worker who I think would be a good fit for the Haskell. Join in the Dance. His sire Sky Mesa looked the perfect picture of a horse when he ran in the Haskell, and the style might fit this horse as well. He was the top finisher for Todd in the Derby. Might be his best horse.

So, That Was Fun

And again the craziness of Triple Crown season is over. 3 races 3 separate winners. This has now happened 3 out of the last 4 years and I gotta say I was dead wrong about this group of winners. I thought we had a deep crop, but looking back what have we got so far? 2 legs were won by horses that were greater than 50-1 on Derby day. You can talk all you want about injuries, but that's part of the game, that's part of what makes this crop crap. I look forward to horses getting healthy, but I wouldn't say I'm holding my breath. Let me be a bit more clear. I'm looking forward to the Haskell. I mean I think we'll see some really competitive racing, but I'd give anything for horse to have the hype of an Afleet Alex or Big Brown to continue to dominate through the Summer and Fall. Point Given comes to mind. Not sure if I fall into the whiners that Drape's says I might be.

Horses Aren't Golfers

I'm a big fan of Fred Pope, think the guy is usually within spitting distance of a right answer. His newest rant over on Thoroughbred Times though I think misses a pretty big point. Golfers get to the PGA after a lifetime of playing, honing their craft, Div I play, international rounds, maybe Q-school. The best golfers take a life time to make and after a lifetime we know who the best ones are. Horses are entirely different. A great horse can come from pretty much anywhere and take the nation by storm, now what happens when that horses owner isn't part of the collective? Imagine if Mine That Bird's owner wasn't part of the clique, you think Smarty Jones would have qualified? I know Mr Pope says that the league won't run on BC and KD day, I'm just making the point if you just include the rich owners it'll be the rich getting richer. There has to be a quick fast way a horse qualifies to the big stage. Getting all the owners on board is probably a non-starter.

Belmont Trends

Da' Tara, Jazil, Sarava. Those 3 names don't really ring the bells even for true racing fans. They were decent horses who caught a favorable race at the right time. The race just so happened to be the Belmont, the final jewel in the crown. Again this year it seems with the long shot in the Derby having lost in the Preakness everyone again is looking for a bomb. "Zito always has a runner" I've heard more than once. Don't be fooled. The Belmont has been one by some great horses doing what they do best: running. Afleet Alex, Empire Maker, Point Given. And I'm now of the belief that Mine That Bird was no fluke. He was a 2yo champion who got terrible rides prior to the Derby. He's a good horse. Who knows if he's great, that won't be determined for a couple more races, but he's good enough to win the Belmont. He's by a Belmont winner, who was by a Derby winner, who was by a Derby Winner. This horse is NOT Giacomo. There are other horses in the races and you can check all the Belmont Odds out if you wish. Just remember Mine That Bird will be more than a 1 hit wonder.

Gary Stevens the Trainer

This press release is a little confusing, is he an owner or trainer. I'm guessing it's as a trainer, but it never really lays that out. Isn't there a ton of stories about how jockeys always think they know better than the trainer, though invariably when given the chance they prove themselves wrong? We'll see how Gary ends up, but I have a voice in the back of my head saying that I once heard that Gary was like one of those jockeys mentioned, we'll see if that voice has any truth to it. June 1, 2009 - Sierra Madre, CA - Gary Stevens, the Hall of Fame jockey who hung up his tack in 2005 with over 5,000 wins and earnings exceeding $221 million, is opening a California-based racing stable. The newly-organized Gary Stevens Racing Stable Inc. will have stalls at Santa Anita Race Course in Arcadia, Calif., and runners will ship from there to various locations across the United States. “This is something I’ve wanted to do for a long time, and things finally fell into place,” said Stevens, who also works as an analyst for NBC sports and HRTV. “We’re starting out with several nice horses and looking forward to slowly building up the stable.” Stevens will be assisted by his son, T.C. Stevens, who worked for Ashford Stud for two years and also gained experience with other California and Florida-based operations before joining his father’s fledgling team. “It’s a family business,” Stevens said. “My father Ron is a trainer, my brother Scott is a jockey, and my older brother Craig is a breeder. It was only natural for T.C. to follow in those footsteps as well.” Stevens, 46, won eight Breeders’ Cup races, a record nine runnings of the Santa Anita Derby, and eight Triple Crown races - including triple editions of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes – in a racing career that spanned 27 years. Since his retirement, he has served as a consultant for IEAH Stables and various other racing operations, in addition to his duties as an analyst. “We met on the set of Seabiscuit,” said Nick Mestrendrea, owner of 2007 Inaugural Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Maryfield. “Gary brought me into the business shortly thereafter and I haven’t looked back. I am thrilled to be on board with him as an owner in his new racing stable and wish him nothing but the best in his new endeavor.”