Reverse Reverse Jinxing It?

Have I told you I own a small % of a 2yo filly, the well named Higher Authority? Well she continues to work well, look good, and do everything that's asked of her. It's going so well they are starting to think of where she'll start next. Holy crap! This is really happening. It's either Colonial or Delaware. I'm voting (no one is counting) Delaware cause it's closer to me, and I could definitely swing an off day. How great do copper colored horses look in red? Thought the same thing when I saw Afleet Alex. And what perfect timing as she doesn't have a foot on the ground! The filly is well handled by ThatsAmoreStable. Shares still available. Is it too early to plan her breeding career as I'm sure she'll be a sought after mare! Photo courtesy of Patricia Derkasch

Who Do The Stewards Work For?

They work for the state. They make many tracks look bad with their closed door meetings, tight lip responses, and lack of any unifying group thought, but the tracks don't control them. The States do. The thing I learned the most going around with the racing industry is that because of state influence: rules & regulations, their hands are tied with many issues of change. James Theriot statement: “This was a very difficult decision for me to make but after consulting with respected members of the racing community and legal counsel I felt that this was the best course of action [ed: appeal the ruling] to take.” “I am profoundly sorry for the pain that Rene and his family are suffering. Words cannot express my grief. My thoughts and prayers are with them.” I feel bad for the kid. He did something every other jockey has done, and has been safe in doing so 99 out of 100 times, but it only takes one time. No one deserves what either Rene or James is going through. However, just like surface didn't cause Barbaro's breakdown, and drugs didn't cause Eight Belles hopefully this will force the states to reexamine the relationship between tracks and stewards, to create a unified response, and game plan for rider safety and conduct going forward.

Zenyatta vs Rachel (it would have to be twice)

Zenyatta has absolutely no reason to leave the confines of Southern California. The Moss' are good people, they do well by the industry, and are good folks with great horses. Shipping horses is a stressful thing, with the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita there's even less reason to run around and try and beat a 3yo. When you're sitting on a 10 race win streak to don't fix what ain't broke. Rachel Alexandra has absolutely no reason to race on the fake stuff if they feel it's not her best surface. We all saw Curlin struggle on it, and we've seen countless other horses struggle, be the same, or move up. If Rachel continues her year at this pace will she need to win on a different surface to solidify her credentials on a different surface? It's like holding the BC Turf in the parking lot of Santa Anita. We know these surfaces are different. The difference between Aqueduct inner dirt and Belmont Sandy is real, but it doesn't stop people from making the switch. The difference between Keeneland's and Turfway's Polytrack and is real, but we don't hear complaints there either. There must be a significan difference between the two because trainers (who know better than me) say there is. We can't ask the two fillies to make a match race or show up on one's preferred surface. It's like settling the World Series in 1 game with the DH. I mean who would think that was fair? HOWEVER, Mr Jackson and the Moss' seem like gaming folks, and I think there's still time for this: Why not sign up for a 2 race deal? Mr. Jackson will commit to running Rachel in the BC if the Moss' commit to running Zenyatta on a dirt track sometime before then. Now if they split it I think you just call it a tie and say that each excel on their surface, and appreciate their greatness on each.

Too Many Place Too Little Money

The print news industry is dead. I probably should cite that, but I think we've all come to accept this as fact. People are going to other resources to get their news, and not enough people are reading papers. Again, don't have to cite that, it might as well be written in stone and handed down on a mountain. But I would add that it's not that people have stopped reading the paper in droves that caused the problem, it's that there are so many options for advertisers. Look, paper's circulation numbers were always dicey, I used to get a free Daily News on my way to work in the city, and so did everyone else who rode the NY Waterway, sometimes we got one as we got on the PATH all for free. We always got one for certain months because that's when papers audited their circulation numbers, I'm guessing they weren't counting paid circulation. Anyways, the point being, it was never the $.50 that kept them in business. It was the full page ads that did. And it was the people who paid for those ads that thought they were getting their money's worth. The value of advertising is (I believe) a con game. And maybe I'm digging a hole here, as I accept advertising on this page. The value of an ad is what someone is willing to pay for it. You could say that affiliate marketing is more fair, and I could tell you to go "F" yourself. Who knows for certain. I'm sure there are advertising gurus who could give you a number to the penny about what it's worth, and I could point you to people who know the exact value of a 3rd tranche alt A subprime loan pool. It's all guestimates and based on assumptions. Advertisers at one time moved from print to radio. It wasn't a big deal as radio was heard by people a paper couldn't reach and we're talking about a few radio channels, then it moved to TV; again adding a few 100 or more channels to go down, then cable... now things are getting thin for advertising budgets. Then the internet. BOOM goes the dynamite. It wasn't a few hundred channels, it was billions. What do you do w/ your advertising budget then? Everyone spreads it out, and the value is again recalculated to justify the lower amount of money going to each media. What is the connection to horse racing? It's all about value, and how it changes through time not because time passes but because resources are moved around. Because newspapers were flush with too much advertising dollars papers used to cover all sorts of things like racing results, but there used to be more sections, more beat writers, more of everything. When gambling fans only had racing as their legal fix we had how many tracks in the NY area? And still today we have year round racing heaped upon a populace that can't support it. So it's subsidized by taxes and slots and more people get their hands in the mix and more rules and laws are written, more panels and committees are formed, and we're left with what we have: An industry that created fractures that can't put itself together nor make a group decision because no one makes decisions. It's passed on to committee it's passed on to a law review. It's just passed. It's no one responsibility. Papers will come back, and I should note some papers are succeeding, not just because they are now online, there are real physical papers turning profits, because they focused on their bottom line, they're not covering racing anymore because it doesn't pay the bills. The papers that are nimble and not weighed down by arcane laws and rules have the ability to change. This is where racing gets screwed. When the economy turns, and it will turn papers will come back stronger, they'll be leaner and really geared towards what people want. Racing too will comeback handle wise rise, but will it be a stronger product? Let's see how this Magna bankruptcy goes, see if anyone is willing to make some big changes.

For the Love of the Game

Have you noticed it's been light posting around here lately? Are you just relieved I hadn't been clogging up your twitter stream or RSS feed? I've done this on purpose. It's Triple Crown season, and it's the one time a year where there is a ton of main stream coverage, so what could I the blogger really add? Pretty much noise (not saying that other blogs are adding noise, just that I'd be doing that). So, I've remained on the sidelines. But it got me thinking where Bloggers fit in, and how they fit in. Journalism is dying for a myriad of reasons. Different channels, different revenue streams, different timeliness, take your pick, and the mainstream writers are focusing more on mainstream sports. Horse racing is not one of them. Neither is baseball, believe it or not. It's a weird collective of baseball enclaves whose sum is pretty great, but don't think you can find 10 passionate baseball fans in non-baseball states. I digress. The story is that the Dodgers, the Los Angeles Dodgers, are down to 1 beat writer and have opened up their press box to bloggers. This is a pretty great first hand look at the transition, and a great post. The mainstream isn't the river it once was, and bloggers are more than ever adding to the official story. And with this, I guess we'll all somewhat change. When I started the blog I tried to pick up on the stuff that fell through the cracks: Stories I thought that were important, or ideas that I thought deserved some light. Now, I think it's fine for me to promote Monmouth Park's Eatontown stakes (shameless plug) and or the movements of Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, Jess Jackson, and Borel from a mainstream-report-the-news type perspective. So, no Borel decision, Jackson wants to duck the polytrack, and Mine That Bird should be pissed if he wins the Belmont with no Rachel Alexandra.

Sporting vs Well Being

I have no idea whether or not Rachel Alexandra will run in the Belmont, but it is an interesting conundrum; whether she should run or not. It was made all the more interesting when Mine That Bird proved himself no fluke with another devastating closing kick at Pimlico, and finished a hard charging second. Sporting - It wouldn't be right to only show up 1 day, win the Preakness, and never be heard of again on the Triple Crown trail. The Belmont is the "Test of Champions" so you can't really take one jewel and skip the Test. What if Mine That Bird wins the Belmont with Rachel not there? Will people assume, "oh she already beat him, she could have won the Belmont," or will they say "hey, she just robbed us of a Triple Crown." It's a fair argument really because in the Derby you need more luck than in any other race, you can't assume she would have won the Derby. Safety - The Belmont is an anachronism in racing: A mile and half. She doesn't really need to do it, won't be asked to do it ever again, wasn't training for this schedule of events ever. She's already proven a lot by winning the Preakness, and wouldn't really add to it with a Belmont win. Sure it'd be a huge story, and great for racing, but would it be that great for her? To be honest I won't have a hard time with either decision Jackson makes, it's his horse, and it doesn't seem like he can go wrong w/ either. You can always find a little thing off here or there and just scratch from it and moot the whole argument.

I Was Wrong

I thought that because Rachel wasn't pointing the race it was foolish to throw her schedule off. I was way wrong, she was dominate, I didn't cash a ticket, but felt like I got my money's worth. I was right about Mine That Bird, that's a good horse who will do great up in Saratoga, and no reason he won't win his fair share of races. I'm off the Friesan Fire bandwagon.

An Idea I Believe In to be Tested

If Harrison Fraser gets his way there will be less focus on gambling when racing is shown on English TV. For the record, I'm not 100% sold on this for England as they embrace gambling far differently than we do stateside, but let's see how this plays out. Equidaily already called it a failure so I'm pretty sure I'm on the right side of this one. The premise is that gambling is a "bad" while racing is a "good" get people to focus on the goods and they will end up doing the bads, it's just human nature. What I'm not happy about is that the English paid $375,000 (USD equivalent) for a report a group of us did for a free trip out to Vegas and some free meals. 1 Premierisation - identifying the top fixtures and clarifying jockeys' and trainers' championships (oh you mean like standings and a Saturday coordinated TV show) 2 Brand identity and web portal (covered it) 3 Stakeholder engagement - getting everyone onside (VP Online/Offline communication) 4 Betting and in-store communications - simplifying gambling (ok we didn't do this) 5 The raceday experience - improving quality for spectators (connecting online & offline experience) 6 Internal and external PR assets - getting the celebrity factor (Charity-capping) 7 Targeting the organisers of racing trips (missed this one 2) $375,000.00 worth of info created by a handful of fans. Sheesh, hope someone was listening.

Next Year's Oaks Winner?

Screw it, next year's Derby winner? I mean 2yo's really haven't started yet so I guess on paper she has as good as chance as anyone else, and if Mine That Bird cost $9500 at one point I think we're ahead of the game. I met my 2 yo filly yesterday; the well named Higher Authority (Peace Rules - Zaylah, Pulpit). And she has the attitude of a kitten. She's worked twice now, both 3f, on Friday she went in about 38. Usually the day after a work the horse is a little cranked up, Higher Authority looked like she just woke up. Our Trainer Ferris brought her out and she really does shine like a penny in the sun. She walked well, her back feet landing where here front feet just were. She held her head nicely, and has a good eye, she's about 15.2 and could grow a bit, front to back she is pretty compact I'd say (but I have no idea what I'm talking about on all of this). Her nickname around the barn is Peanut I'm told, and I'm guessing that's because of her size. I like this, I'm hoping I own a part of a horse like Megahertz (a personal fave of mine) I was there with my Dad, Brother, and his g'friend and Higher Authority just made friends with all of us. She had no problem w/ the attention, didn't turn a hair. Ferris says if everything stays on plan (and this only happens very rarely) she could make the races late June early July. I'd like to see her run 2-3 times this year, so I'm in no rush. This partnership is working out great. I know where my horse is, what she's doing, and how she's doing it. I don't feel like I'm out of the loop at all, and if she turns out to be a 5k claimer well she'll be a 5k claimer, and I'll be told she's a 5k claimer. Thanks to Frank at Amore Stables. Shares are still available.

10 Reasons Why You Should Have Had Mine That Bird

10 – You stand when you hear, “Oh Canada, Our home and native Land” 9 – You thought Big And Rich trained horses. 8 – You realized they just put a big statue out front of Churchill of a Derby winner with a number 8 on it, and bet the number 8. 7 – Calvin Borel + Closer = $10 of your dollars even if he’s on a donkey. 6 – You play the reverse dosage theory (he was the highest in the field) 5 – You saw Birdstone win on a sloppy Belmont, and broke his maiden in the slop and picked the right Birdstone progeny (I picked the wrong one) 4 – Your second daughter’s middle name means little bird in Gaelic (again I bet the wrong one) 3 - $20 win on ALL 2 – You were born on the 8th day of the month or in August. 1 – Ok what am I missing, did you have him? Why?

Mass Psychology of Being Wrong

When Street Sense, Barbaro, Big Brown, Smarty Jones crossed the line first in their Derbies the world celebrated (ok the few thousand horse racing fans) because a Triple Crown was a possibility. That's what happens when you have a favorite. Everyone was right, we all knew it. When a long shot wins we all still believe we were right. It was a fluke, it was the surface, it was his conformation, it was a host of things. I have no complaints about this, it is what it is, funny. It's fool me once shame on you that makes us demand a second victory from a horse who was best on that day on those circumstances. And that's how a horse always wins a race. I chuckle as I read a lot of the articles.... As if Mine That Bird were to lose the Preakness Churchill will cash all of our Pioneerof the Nile tickets. It's not gonna happen.

A Formful Derby

I didn't have Mine That Bird, I eliminated him pretty much first time through. That's not the horse's fault, it's mine. Also, this Derby, outside the 1st place finisher was somewhat formful, does that mean Mine That Bird is the real deal? He'll have to prove it one more time, but let's look at the top half finishers: Pioneerof the Nile - Unbeaten in last 4 starts, he was the best of the West and even if you don't like the poly/dirt angle a must use horse just because of the horses that did come East. Musket Man - A winner of 5 of 6 career races with speed to not get buried on the rail at the start. I used this horse pretty heavily. Papa Clem - One of the 5 high Beyers in the field and had an improving form. This was a tier 1 horse for me (along w/ PotN). Looking down the list I liked the first 7 horses, and would have been a millionaire had Summer Bird hit the frame instead of Mine that Bird. I didn't like the Sheikh's horses, Dunkirk had been a mess all week, why was Hold Me Back a buzz horse in the first place. If you swap Mine that Bird w/ Friesan Fire you get a 115 Beyer and one of the deepest fields in the last 20 years. I agree Mine That Bird muddies the picture, but let's see how this plays out.