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Jul 13, 2009

A Tactical Plan

400 pages but none of them include tactical details. Good job. So, here's the plan for strengthening the road to the Breeders' Cup. And, if you follow this blog you might have heard bits and pieces of it before, but I'll try and put a fresh spin on it and I believe the logic is sound. I don't want to say W&YI is bad, because it's a great first step, I do support it, kind of, and I think the below is a logical next step.

Problems
Do you get road to the BC emails from virtual stable? The first ones that come out have horses I've barely heard of, and I follow racing. Furthermore, going to the BC page for the challenge leads one to believe that the below horses are ones to follow (we do want our fans following right?):
Turf Mile: Sight Winner
F&M Turf: Dar Re Mi
Dirt Mile: Coal Play
Turf: Presious Passion
Turf Sprint: Yankee Injunuity
F&M Sprint: Game Face
Sprint: Eaton's Gift

July is a dead month for sports coverage, and the BC has a chance to launch their series of races with very little noise. The above horses are ones you should follow? This is a BIG problem for 3 reasons. First, you'd have a hard time saying any of the above horses are top 5 material in their respective categories. Second, you had Gio Ponti, Benny the Bulll, and Life is Sweet run this past weekend. Finally, why follow a horse that's already in, what else does it have to do?

The same issue is found on the road to the Derby: Casual fans get interested in the Derby not in November but in February, March. By this point in time there already exist horses generating buzz. The hardcore fans know who is wintering where and might share that info with them. They know what races buzz horses are showing up in next. The buzz starts with the hard core fans and moves up the chain, this is how Buzz works. The Buzz horses are created by those following sport. I'd say the horses listed above aren't too buzz worthy. I'd say the above horses create dissonance when a casual fan might try and talk with someone who knows racing, I don't know how I'd react if someone wanted to talk about Dar Ra Mi's chances in the F&M Turf. Basically, you can't force buzz.

Therefore, you can't kick off the road to the BC with a W&YI format. Why should a horse who does well in April, hell even August deserve a bid in November. And it's definitely a bad way to engage casual fans with horses who are less likely to make it to the race yet even win it. The best W&YI races are ones held in Sept & October. Those races have horses peaking at the right time and even a win by a longshot will mean a "fit" horse in the starting gate, think of the longshot that wins in September as a Cinderella.

Let's agree to have W&YI in races be the Gr I's in Sept & October and save a few for the big European & Asian races if you really love them that much. That way they can create legitimate Cinderellas or affirm who has been top horse in the category for the year.

So am I killing W&YI? No, I'm repositioning it where it can have the greatest impact. Now, let's talk about the Breeders' Cup Challenge. They already have a race count in April so nothing is too early, and now the BC is talking about finding tracks willing to cooperate with them. So, BC, you'll need to give something back.

Take every category (yes that's a lot, but so is 162 games and a 12 month football season)(oh and because a buzz horse can be in any category) and create standings. NOT FOR YEAR END AWARDS, but for gate choice. Create a home field advantage. Imagine the BC is at Belmont and you have a horse who has dominated every race leading up to Classic and then you get post 14. Ugh. Yes, you could overcome it, but it doesn't sound too fair to me. You want your stars, who have performed all year long, to have the best chance to culminate a winning season with a championship. This is good business. It's why David Stern fixes the NBA finals to always get 1 big market team in the big game.

The current standings don't work. That is a no brainer. Let's not talk about prior attempts either that centered on taking money from host tracks, tried to pick and choose what was important, or anything else. Nothing like the following has been tried before. Every Graded Stake at any track at any time from Jan 1 to the BC count towards home field advantage. The TBA standings aren't perfect and aren't the same categories, but it'd be a hell of a lot easier to launch a series with your current leaders being:
Einstein, Mine That Bird, Rachel Alexandra, Life is Sweet, Gio Ponti, Forever Together, Fabulous Strike, and Ventura.

What do you do about the Dirt Mile, Marathon, Juvy grass races? 1 of 2 things: You get that panel together and start looking at all the NG races to add to some divisions like the Juvenile Turf or you say your points travel with you. Sprinting points count towards the Sprint or Mile, Classic points count toward the Mile or Marathon.

What do you do about the Europeans? You count their Graded Stakes as well. I've gone over past BC's and the horses that come over fit nicely in the "home field" advantage theory. It's not a stretch at all.

Now imagine the "sell"

You want cooperation from tracks you now have something to give tracks: A hook. Come see #5 vs #8. Come see a race that means something. You have email addresses? Help those tracks w/ email blasts, pump every graded & sometimes ungraded race on your site, help prime the local media w/ press releases and get in touch w/ trainers owners to add to all that info. You want BC banners hanging around on the grounds, I think you've got a fair trade.

Now imagine the website. We all can't be tbablogs.com but imagine if you could see the standings and click the horses name and end up at a bio of that horse, click the standings and you get a list of the videos in the races he competed in, and finally a bit of info on what that horse is doing today.

So now he have a plan that is organic to racing; a series of accumulation rather than attrition, a way to offer something to the tracks, a way to engage new and old fans alike.

Will they do it? They have to.

fact checked by Kennedy

3 comments:

Kennedy said...

Excellent thoughts, the Breeders' Cup should definitely be considering something like this.

As for races like the Dirt Mile and Turf Juveniles, the implementation of this program shows just why we don't really need those races. They don't represent a championship of any sort of division.

The_Knight_Sky said...

Handride wrote This is good business. It's why David Stern fixes the NBA finals to always get 1 big market team in the big game.

___________

Does that mean Richard Shapiro was in for the fix when the Breeders Cup came a-calling two years in a row?

Steve Zorn said...

They might have to do it, but I'm not betting the rent that they will. Good plan, Patrick, and one that could produce a bit of a story line, along the lines of a baseball pennant race and home-field advantage, etc. Still, if we don't have more people interested in racing per se, we won't have enough people interested in the Breeders Cup, no matter how we tweak it.

 
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