How can we get this sport to cooperate... for real... and not just in front of old guys who really remember Seabiscuit. |
Jun 20, 2008
Under the Same Roof
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16 comments:
I may have this wrong but is it true that in Europe, to enter a horse in a graded stake, he must have some minimum form rating?
I mean they wouldn't allow a Guadalcanal to enter the Belmont, Right? I'm asking.
Perhaps they could incorporate a similar procedure here, thereby restricting just anyone from entering a graded stake. You create richer races for older horses and don't allow any plodder to enter; might give owners an incentive to keep their horses in training longer.
You would also avoid mediocre horses from claiming a graded stakes place when they are whisked off to the breeding shed. Keep the lower classes in steerage and make them earn a start.
Not sure I agree, Winston--while I see your point, it would eliminate the chance for a Da' Tara to step in and stage a huge upset, or for maiden Nolan's Cat to finish third in the 2005 Belmont. Mediocre or not, their accomplishments were worthy on that day, and why should they be denied a shot?
But isn't that the point? Aren't we looking for some way to separate the chaff? How many horses contesting this year's Belmont had won a Grade I? Two out of however many ran, 10? At what point would the AGSC have to look at the record of horses in successive mediocre runnings of the Belmont before they would take away its GI status?
Great horses beat great horses when they are all on their A game. It's nice for everyone to have a shot but that is not what we are after here is it?
Da'Tara, while a great story did not run an exeptional race. He did not beat a great field. Big Brown was off and Da'Tara was the best of the rest.
I know we don't operate in a perfect world but shouldn't that be the goal?
Love the idea for the sports betting at the track, Pat. On the way out from a losing day any ill-advised wages can be made back on an anybody-the-knicks-are-playing win bet ;-)
I think, Winston, that you and I come from fundamentally different places on this, because I think that regardless of a horse's prior record, owners should be able to enter a horse wherever they want, because upsets DO happen, and I think that they make the sport exciting. In races that customarily have full fields (like the Derby), I can understand the necessity of a system to rule horses out, but otherwise, let 'em in! Especially in an atmosphere in which Grade I winners are raced so rarely. Grasshopper gave Street Sense an incredible run last year--why shouldn't he have been allowed to enter?
But like I said--I think that we just come from different places here, so I am explaining my opinion more than I am trying to change yours...
I don't mind having my opinion changed and I don't think that we are that far apart on this either.
I'm not saying that a horse needs to have a GI win to enter. My original question regarding the form rating was where I was going with this. I thought I heard the announcers at Royal Ascot say something to the effect of horses having minimum rating points in order to qualify and that was based in some way on their pefromance in their past races.
I want to make sure that my understanding of that is correct. They referenced a particular race where A. O'Brien was using a rabbit to set up one of his horses. They said something like the horse while not in to win had to meet a certain form rating in order to qualify to run.
Could we not set up some sort of rating here? Like a Timeform rating or whatever else would work, I don't know.
Patrick,
What would it cost to set up this tracknet clearinghouse thing and buy TVG from Gemstar?
Round numbers.
What would it take for the track owners to agree to this? I mean how do you make them come to the table and why hasn't Magna or CDI tried this already? If someone does buy this, what makes the tracks want to come to him?
ok this is my blog and while you two are entitled to your opinion it's up to me to decide who is right. And while I was with BB at first (my thought was that you want fuller fields, and standings help everyone get points) I think Winston got me w/ his last argument w/ a form rating. It wouldn't be fair to enter just anybody in a race to get points. You could say that for the Gr I's (that's where the most prestige and points are) that a horse must have gotten a 85 Beyer in a similar race (it could be maiden claiming), but some sort of form would be ok. Would Guadalcanal got in or Nolan's Cat, BB can you check that?
Cost of buying the signals I think would be negligble because the LLC buys the signals from the track only to have the track buy them back, and the tracks own the LLC so any profits go back to them, what the real hurdle would be would be to get the horseman involved in this and have long term agreements for said signals
Is this something YOU could make happen if you had an angel investor?
Would this be a viable business endeavour? Is it really in the best interest of the sport for the track owners to own this product? Why not make it an independent venture where you sell the signal back to the tracks as long as they get a fair cut of the revenue?
I don't know much about the dynamic in the industry so would this not work?
I'll see what I can find out, but this might be one of those cases where I'll need to pay Equibase or DRF to get the speed figures. Gimme a couple of days...
Brisnet PP's rate Guadalcanal 10th in the ten-horse Belmont field, and his last speed rating (not BSF) was ten points lower than anyone else's in the race.
Da' Tara was rated ninth; his Brisnet speed figure in the Barbaro (99) was two points behind Big Brown's in the Pimlico.
"Would Guadalcanal got in or Nolan's Cat,"
If you imposed an 85 Beyer minimum to enterthe Belmont you would have excluded Watchmon, Platinum Couple and Guadalcanal from 2000 the present.
Dr Greenfield would have to be dealt with seperately as he was European and thus did not have any BSF's.
well i just through the 85 beyer out there, i'm loathe to make Andy's head any bigger than it already is, but it looks like I didn't take any big horses out though.
BB what do you think about some sort of form rating?
I can see the value of a form rating, but I'm still not sure I'd be in favor. Two things:
1) Seems like it could decrease field sizes. So few races have full fields, and establishing some sort of prerequisite to get in could make fields even smaller (though that doesn't seem to have been the case with the hypothetical 85 BSF cut-off for the Belmont).
2) I work at a high school that offers AP classes, all of which have a grade prerequisite. Every once in a while, some kid that doesn't meet the prequisite fights to get in, and we generally let them, with fair warning that the class will probably be pretty hard for them, and they might end up with a low grade. Some do...but some of the kids who haven't met the grade prereq generally do fine--so why deny them the opportunity? (and I reserve the right to use this idea in a future post on this topic!)
I agree w/ the AP class idea, but we wouldn't want more Red tape in the sport. The racing secretaries would have to write in the race w/ specific numbers. Just as they write non-winners of stakes in teh last 6 months given 4 lbs.
i think if they had standings first you'd seen an increase in field size (as owners want to accumlate points) and putting in a very low floor wouldn't be the worst idea, you could just rank entrants by some number and let the first 16 in.
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