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Nov 16, 2007

This is the Tipping Point for Horse Racing

Intel says new chips will speed high-definition video online - International Herald Tribune

HRTV's plans for expansion: too little too late, TVG time is on countdown, Tracknet media has a shot at survival, but c'mon.

I should note that I'm inspired by the above news, Mr Liebman, Joost, and Mark Cuban's blog about the Internet being "dead and boring"

Horse racing is a very fractured sport. (Really, you don't say, you are a smart one.) This quality has always kept the sport from gaining any national traction or attention sans the first Saturday in May and the last weekend in October. The business has been able to skate by because gambling never truly goes out of style not matter how badly you treat the customers. And, like with most poorly run companies and sectors, every now and then they are able to step in shit, and come out smelling like roses. This chip, whether they know it or not, is that pile of shit.

Let me put on hat and stare at the crystal ball and tell you about your living room in 2-5 years. Actually, first I should mention your home office with its computer will be gone. Look at the writing on the wall; Dell makes TV's, Apple is a media company, HP is in it for the pictures. The focus isn't on the computer anymore because it's useless. The focus of the home is turning away from the computer in the office to the computer in the living room. Turns out people like watching (Web 2.0 success is all about video) a lot more than reading (Web 1.0). Your living room TV, yes that big 70 inch wide screen will be your computer screen. Us old fuddy duddies will not only be searching for our remote, but our wireless mouse and keyboard.

Combine this affinity for moving pictures with the loathe you feel for your local cable company and you can see there is a huge space in industry for what this chip is bringing. If you refuse to read the article it boils down to the fact that this chip will help deploy HD over the series of tubes we refer to as the internet, and it's my wet dream: Buying TV ala carte. I see a world where:
I can subscribe to basic channels for free w/ commercials
Direct buy the shows from the distributor sans ads
Video on Demand everything
Subscribe to individual channels or groups of channels.
Finally, for us horse players; get direct feeds from the tracks themselves. Oh yeah.

That's right. The big difference between today and tomorrow is twofold: competition increases as there are no barriers to distribution, it becomes that much easier for the homebody to not only wager, but to enjoy the experience. The tracks that adopt this technology with conviction (ie install HDTV cameras, put out the wealth of knowledge Keeneland already does) early will be first movers in the space, and might be able to grab some attention and new viewers.

If I'm a track owner I'm saving up for HDTV cameras, over head cams, and talking to my regional counterparts about what they can do to cooperate and maybe actually gain some notice in this space.

3 comments:

Michael said...

Have you ever watched any of those 'World of Tomorrow'-like things that companies like Disney put out in the 60s? The ones that said we'd be in flying cars, would have machines that would control the weather and would all have robot butlers.

It's a fool's errand to try and predict where/what technology is going to go/do next.

Will TVs be computer and computers be TVs? Maybe... but remember how the webTV experiement worked? Me either, because it was shit. Folks like being able to watch broadcast shows (or DVR) and be on the internet at the same time. My wife doesn't want to see that I've looked up something on wiki while we're watching a show on TV... TV needs to remain social, while computing personal... how will the two mesh? I don't know.

BRING ME SOME CHEESE ROBOT BUTLER!

Handride said...

well I'm not looking forward 40 yeras, i'm trying 4, and the ball is already moving in the direction. Joost is proof of that. You say that TV is social, well that's what the web is becoming (facebook, wikis, reddit). WebTV was terrible because it was neither the Internet nor a TV, it was a shitbox. This chip puts them both wholly together no sacrifices. also webtv had no benefits whereas a fully functional computer supporting your TV has a ton of benefits, DVR's can become huge, 1000's of channels, search, and you can watch TV with millions all while interacting with them, plus gameplay. The big diff is HD capabilities, youtube is ok for 3-5 min clips, no one can watch that quality video on a big screen, even porn for longer than that. once you can get TV programming and send it to your TV where will you buy you cable access?

Nick said...

A new chip and with some new compression features isn't going to fix the underlying problem: bandwidth. The reason we have grainy YouTube videos is because grainy video is all most people's connections can handle.

High definition video requires 3-6 times the bandwidth of a normal TV picture. Compared to your average YouTube video you're probably looking at needing anywhere from 7 to 12 times more bandwidth.

Even if this new chip can by some compression miracle cut that number in half, there's a *long* ways to go.

 
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